No Comments

BCREA 2021 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – August 17, 2021 The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2021 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 26 per cent to 118,350 units this year, after recording 94,007 sales in 2020. In 2022, MLS®residential sales are forecast to pull back 15 per cent to 100,150 units.

“The pace of home sales in the province has slowed in recent months but an unprecedented start to the year still has BC on track for a record-breaking year,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist.

With strong demand being supported by low mortgage rates and a rapidly rebounding post-COVID economy, the more significant concern is whether there will be an adequate supply of listings in the market. The supply situation is especially severe in markets outside the Lower Mainland, where new listings activity has been lackluster. As a result, the average price in 2021 is on track to post a second consecutive year of double-digit gains. We are forecasting the provincial average price to rise 16.6 per cent to $911,300 this year, followed by a 2.9 per cent gain next year to $937,300.

No Comments

REBGV: “Steady sales, reduced listings and virtually unchanged home prices in July”

Metro Vancouver’s housing market saw more moderate sales, listings and pricing trends in July compared to the heightened activity experienced throughout much of the pandemic.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 3,326 in July 2021, a 6.3 per cent increase from the 3,128 sales recorded in July 2020, and an 11.6 per cent decrease from the 3,762 homes sold in June 2021.

Last month’s sales were 13.3 per cent above the 10-year July sales average.

“Moderation was the name of the game in July,” said REBGV’s economist Keith Stewart. “Home sales and listings fell in line with typical seasonal patterns as summer got going in earnest in July. On top of moderating market activity, price growth has leveled off in most areas and home types.”

There were 4,377 detached, attached and apartment homes newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in July 2021. This represents a 26.4 per cent decrease compared to the 5,948 homes listed in July 2020 and a 25.2 per cent decrease compared to June 2021 when 5,849 homes were listed.

July’s new listings were 12.3 per cent below the 10-year average for the month.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,850, an 18.5 per cent decrease compared to July 2020 (12,083) and a 9.1 per cent decrease compared to June 2021 (10,839).

“Low housing supply remains a fundamental factor in Metro Vancouver’s housing market,” Stewart said. “Home sales remain above average and we’re starting to see price increases relent as well. Going forward, the supply of homes for sale will be among the most critical factors to watch. This will determine the next direction for house price trends.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for July 2021 is 33.8 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 25.5 per cent for detached homes, 47.8 per cent for townhomes, and 37.3 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,175,500. This represents a 13.8 per cent increase over July 2020 and is unchanged from June 2021.

Sales of detached homes in July 2021 reached 1,050, a 6.3 per cent decrease from the 1,121 detached sales recorded in July 2020. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,801,100. This represents a 21 per cent increase from July 2020 and is unchanged from June 2021.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,666 in July 2021, a 19 per cent increase compared to the 1,400 sales in July 2020. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $736,900. This represents an 8.4 per cent increase from July 2020 and a 0.1 per cent decrease compared to June 2021.

Attached home sales in July 2021 totalled 610, a 0.5 per cent increase compared to the 607 sales in July 2020. The benchmark price of an attached home is $949,400. This represents a 16.7 per cent increase from July 2020 and a 0.3 per cent increase compared to June 2021.”