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“Record-Low Supply Keeps Market Conditions Tight in September”

Vancouver, BC – October 12, 2021. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 9,164 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in September 2021, a decrease of 19.9 per cent from September 2020. The average MLS®residential price in BC was $913,471, a 14 per cent increase from $801,241 recorded in September 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $8.4 billion, an 8.6 per cent decline from last year.

“Home sales have settled at levels that are slightly above long-term average,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “The main story in all markets continues to be a severe lack of listings supply, particularly in Fraser Valley, Vancouver Island and Interior markets.”

Total active residential listings were down 36.8 per cent year-over-year in September for the province as a whole and were more than more than 50 per cent below last September’s levels in the Fraser Valley and Victoria.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 81.8 per cent to $90.4 billion, compared to the same period in 2020. Residential unit sales were up 52.4 per cent to 99,182 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 19.3 per cent to $911,195.

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REBGV:”Elevated home sale activity continues to outstrip the supply of homes for sale in Metro Vancouver”

“Home sale activity remains elevated across Metro Vancouver’s housing market while the pace of homes being listed for sale continues to follow long-term averages.

 

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 3,149 in September 2021, a 13.6 per cent decrease from the 3,643 sales recorded in September 2020, and a 0.1 per cent decrease from the 3,152 homes sold in August 2021.

Last month’s sales were 20.8 per cent above the 10-year September sales average.

There were 5,171 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in September 2021. This represents a 19.2 per cent decrease compared to the 6,402 homes listed in September 2020 and a 28.2 per cent increase compared to August 2021 when 4,032 homes were listed.

September’s new listings were 1.2 per cent below the 10-year average for the month.

“The summer trend of above-average home sales and historically typical new listings activity continued in Metro Vancouver last month. Although this is keeping the overall supply of homes for sale low, we’re not seeing the same upward intensity on home prices today as we did in the spring,” Keith Stewart, REBGV economist said. “Home price trends will, however, vary depending on property type and neighborhood, so it’s important to take a hyperlocal look at your location and property category of choice before making a home buying or selling decision.”

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,236. This is a 29.5 per cent decrease compared to September 2020 (13,096), a 2.6 per cent increase compared to August 2021 (9,005) and is 27.7 per cent below the 10-year average for the month.

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for September 2021 is 34.1 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 25.5 per cent for detached homes, 53.1 per cent for townhomes, and 36.7 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“The total inventory of homes for sale remains insufficient to meet the demand in today’s market. This scarcity limits peoples’ purchasing options and ultimately adds upward pressure on home prices,” Stewart said. “With the federal election now behind us, we hope to see governments at all levels work with the construction industry to streamline the creation of a more abundant and diverse supply of housing options.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $ 1,186,100. This represents a 13.8 per cent increase over September 2020 and a 0.8 per cent increase compared to August 2021.

Sales of detached homes in September 2021 reached 950, a 27.9 per cent decrease from the 1,317 detached sales recorded in September 2020. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,828,200. This represents a 20.4 per cent increase from September 2020 and a 1.2 per cent increase compared to August 2021.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,621 in September 2021, a 1.6 per cent increase compared to the 1,596 sales in September 2020. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $738,600. This represents an 8.4 per cent increase from September 2020 and a 0.5 per cent increase compared to August 2021.

Attached home sales in September 2021 totalled 578, a 20.8 per cent decrease compared to the 730 sales in September 2020. The benchmark price of an attached home is $963,800. This represents a 17.5 per cent increase from September 2020 and a 1.2 per cent increase compared to August 2021.”

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BCREA: “BC Home Sales Returning to Normal While Supply Hits Record Low”

“Vancouver, BC – September 14, 2021.  The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total 9,507 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August 2021, a decrease of 7.1 per cent over August 2020. The average MLS® residential price in BC was $901,712, a 17.2 per cent increase from $769,691 recorded in August 2020. Total sales dollar volume was $8.6 billion, an 8.9 per cent increase from last year.

“Home sales around the province have essentially returned to normal after a record setting spring,” said BCREA Chief Economist Brendon Ogmundson. “However, we continue to see a drought in the total supply of listings as well as downward trend in new listings activity.”

Total active residential listings were down 37.9 per cent year-over-year in August and were 42 per cent below normal levels for the month of August.

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 102.2 per cent to $82 billion, compared with the same period in 2020. Residential unit sales were up 67.8 per cent to 89,980 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 20.5 per cent to $911,245.”

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REBGV: Summer sees home listing supply decline across Metro Vancouver

“While home buyers have remained active in Metro Vancouver* throughout the summer, the supply of homes for sale has declined steadily since June.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 3,152 in August 2021, a 3.4 per cent increase from the 3,047 sales recorded in August 2020, and a 5.2 per cent decrease from the 3,326 homes sold in July 2021.

Last month’s sales were 20.4 per cent above the 10-year August sales average.

“August was busier than expected, and listings activity isn’t keeping up with the pace of demand. This is leaving the market under supplied.” said Keith Stewart, REBGV economist.

There were 4,032 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in August 2021. This represents a 30.6 per cent decrease compared to the 5,813 homes listed in August 2020 and a 7.9 per cent decrease compared to July 2021 when 4,377 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,005, a 29.7 per cent decrease compared to August 2020 (12,803) and an 8.6 per cent decrease compared to July 2021 (9,850).

“Housing supply is the biggest factor impacting the market right now. To help relieve pressure on prices and improve peoples’ home buying options, the market needs a more abundant supply of homes for sale.” Stewart said. “Housing affordability has been a key issue in the federal election. We encourage the political parties to focus on policy solutions that will help streamline the creation of more diverse housing options for hopeful home buyers today and into the future.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for August 2021 is 35 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 25.3 per cent for detached homes, 51.8 per cent for townhomes, and 39.2 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“When assessing the market, it’s important to understand that while year-over-year price increases have reached double digits, most of the increases happened three or more months ago,” Stewart said. “To better understand the latest home price trends in your preferred location and home type, talk with your local REALTOR®.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,176,600. This represents a 13.2 per cent increase over August 2020 and a 0.1 per cent increase compared to July 2021.

Sales of detached homes in August 2021 reached 945, a 13.7 per cent decrease from the 1,095 detached sales recorded in August 2020. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,807,100. This represents a 20.4 per cent increase from August 2020 and a 0.3 per cent increase compared to July 2021.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,631 in August 2021, a 22.4 per cent increase compared to the 1,332 sales in August 2020. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $735,100. This represents a 7.6 per cent increase from August 2020 and a 0.2 per cent decrease compared to July 2021.

Attached home sales in August 2021 totalled 576, a 7.1 per cent decrease compared to the 620 sales in August 2020. The benchmark price of an attached home is $952,600. This represents a 16.5 per cent increase from August 2020 and a 0.3 per cent increase compared to July 2021.”

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REBGV: Summer sees home listing supply decline across Metro Vancouver

While home buyers have remained active in Metro Vancouver throughout the summer, the supply of homes for sale has declined steadily since June.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 3,152 in August 2021, a 3.4 per cent increase from the 3,047 sales recorded in August 2020, and a 5.2 per cent decrease from the 3,326 homes sold in July 2021.

Last month’s sales were 20.4 per cent above the 10-year August sales average.

“August was busier than expected, and listings activity isn’t keeping up with the pace of demand. This is leaving the market under supplied.” said Keith Stewart, REBGV economist.

There were 4,032 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in August 2021. This represents a 30.6 per cent decrease compared to the 5,813 homes listed in August 2020 and a 7.9 per cent decrease compared to July 2021 when 4,377 homes were listed.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,005, a 29.7 per cent decrease compared to August 2020 (12,803) and an 8.6 per cent decrease compared to July 2021 (9,850).

“Housing supply is the biggest factor impacting the market right now. To help relieve pressure on prices and improve peoples’ home buying options, the market needs a more abundant supply of homes for sale.” Stewart said. “Housing affordability has been a key issue in the federal election. We encourage the political parties to focus on policy solutions that will help streamline the creation of more diverse housing options for hopeful home buyers today and into the future.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for August 2021 is 35 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 25.3 per cent for detached homes, 51.8 per cent for townhomes, and 39.2 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

“When assessing the market, it’s important to understand that while year-over-year price increases have reached double digits, most of the increases happened three or more months ago,” Stewart said. “To better understand the latest home price trends in your preferred location and home type, talk with your local REALTOR®.”

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,176,600. This represents a 13.2 per cent increase over August 2020 and a 0.1 per cent increase compared to July 2021.

Sales of detached homes in August 2021 reached 945, a 13.7 per cent decrease from the 1,095 detached sales recorded in August 2020. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,807,100. This represents a 20.4 per cent increase from August 2020 and a 0.3 per cent increase compared to July 2021.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,631 in August 2021, a 22.4 per cent increase compared to the 1,332 sales in August 2020. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $735,100. This represents a 7.6 per cent increase from August 2020 and a 0.2 per cent decrease compared to July 2021.

Attached home sales in August 2021 totalled 576, a 7.1 per cent decrease compared to the 620 sales in August 2020. The benchmark price of an attached home is $952,600. This represents a 16.5 per cent increase from August 2020 and a 0.3 per cent increase compared to July 2021.”

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BCREA 2021 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update

Vancouver, BC – August 17, 2021 The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2021 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales in the province are forecast to rise 26 per cent to 118,350 units this year, after recording 94,007 sales in 2020. In 2022, MLS®residential sales are forecast to pull back 15 per cent to 100,150 units.

“The pace of home sales in the province has slowed in recent months but an unprecedented start to the year still has BC on track for a record-breaking year,” said Brendon Ogmundson, BCREA Chief Economist.

With strong demand being supported by low mortgage rates and a rapidly rebounding post-COVID economy, the more significant concern is whether there will be an adequate supply of listings in the market. The supply situation is especially severe in markets outside the Lower Mainland, where new listings activity has been lackluster. As a result, the average price in 2021 is on track to post a second consecutive year of double-digit gains. We are forecasting the provincial average price to rise 16.6 per cent to $911,300 this year, followed by a 2.9 per cent gain next year to $937,300.

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REBGV: “Steady sales, reduced listings and virtually unchanged home prices in July”

Metro Vancouver’s housing market saw more moderate sales, listings and pricing trends in July compared to the heightened activity experienced throughout much of the pandemic.

The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV) reports that residential home sales in the region totalled 3,326 in July 2021, a 6.3 per cent increase from the 3,128 sales recorded in July 2020, and an 11.6 per cent decrease from the 3,762 homes sold in June 2021.

Last month’s sales were 13.3 per cent above the 10-year July sales average.

“Moderation was the name of the game in July,” said REBGV’s economist Keith Stewart. “Home sales and listings fell in line with typical seasonal patterns as summer got going in earnest in July. On top of moderating market activity, price growth has leveled off in most areas and home types.”

There were 4,377 detached, attached and apartment homes newly listed for sale on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Metro Vancouver in July 2021. This represents a 26.4 per cent decrease compared to the 5,948 homes listed in July 2020 and a 25.2 per cent decrease compared to June 2021 when 5,849 homes were listed.

July’s new listings were 12.3 per cent below the 10-year average for the month.

The total number of homes currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 9,850, an 18.5 per cent decrease compared to July 2020 (12,083) and a 9.1 per cent decrease compared to June 2021 (10,839).

“Low housing supply remains a fundamental factor in Metro Vancouver’s housing market,” Stewart said. “Home sales remain above average and we’re starting to see price increases relent as well. Going forward, the supply of homes for sale will be among the most critical factors to watch. This will determine the next direction for house price trends.”

For all property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for July 2021 is 33.8 per cent. By property type, the ratio is 25.5 per cent for detached homes, 47.8 per cent for townhomes, and 37.3 per cent for apartments.

Generally, analysts say downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,175,500. This represents a 13.8 per cent increase over July 2020 and is unchanged from June 2021.

Sales of detached homes in July 2021 reached 1,050, a 6.3 per cent decrease from the 1,121 detached sales recorded in July 2020. The benchmark price for a detached home is $1,801,100. This represents a 21 per cent increase from July 2020 and is unchanged from June 2021.

Sales of apartment homes reached 1,666 in July 2021, a 19 per cent increase compared to the 1,400 sales in July 2020. The benchmark price of an apartment property is $736,900. This represents an 8.4 per cent increase from July 2020 and a 0.1 per cent decrease compared to June 2021.

Attached home sales in July 2021 totalled 610, a 0.5 per cent increase compared to the 607 sales in July 2020. The benchmark price of an attached home is $949,400. This represents a 16.7 per cent increase from July 2020 and a 0.3 per cent increase compared to June 2021.”

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Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement – July 14, 2021

The Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 0.25 per cent this morning, a level it considers its effective lower bound. The Bank reiterated what it calls “extraordinary forward guidance” in committing to leaving the overnight rate at 0.25 per cent until slack in the economy is absorbed and inflation sustainably returns to its 2 per cent target. The Bank projects that will not occur until the second half of 2022.  The Bank announced that it is adjusting its quantitative easing (QE) program down to purchasing $2 billion per week Government of Canada bonds per week. In the statement accompanying the decision, the Bank noted that it expects a strong pick-up in economic growth over the second half of the year as vaccinations progress and restrictions are lifted.  The Bank expects growth of close to 6 per cent this year, followed by 4.5 per cent growth in 2022.

As we hopefully approach the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, the issue of inflation has arisen as the most hotly debated topic among economists and analysts.  Specifically, whether current elevated inflation of around 3.5 per cent is a sign of accelerating prices or merely the transitory effect of supply constraints brought on by the pandemic.  The Bank of Canada is firmly on the side of believing higher than normal inflation is a temporary phenomenon. In today’s announcement, the Bank noted that base-year effects, meaning we are comparing prices in a recovered economy now to one in which prices were falling amidst a severe recession one year ago, rising gasoline prices and pandemic related bottlenecks in supply chains account for most of the increase in inflation.  The Bank expects inflation to remain above 3 per cent through the remainder of this year before easing back toward its 2 per cent target in 2022.  Given that outlook, and uncertainty surrounding timing of when the economy may be fully back to normal, the Bank seems to be on a path to raising its policy rate between the end of 2022 and early 2023.